Following the recent
election, the future of the U.S. Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery Program—commonly
known as the Green Card Lottery—has come under scrutiny. Given Donald Trump’s
renewed tenure in office and his prior statements on immigration policy, it is
plausible that his administration may attempt to terminate or drastically
change the DV program. Trump has a well-documented stance against the program,
having previously deemed it a national security risk and incongruent with his
vision of a merit-based immigration system. This piece examines Trump’s
position on the DV program, possible changes he might pursue, and the
implications for both the U.S. and aspiring immigrants globally.
Background on Trump’s Stance Toward the DV Program
The Diversity Visa
Lottery Program, established under the Immigration Act of 1990, provides up to
55,000 immigrant visas annually to individuals from countries with historically
low immigration rates to the U.S. The DV program is widely recognized as a pathway
to legal U.S. residency for people from diverse backgrounds, including from
countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia, who may lack other channels for
immigration. Each year, millions of applicants vie for the chance to win a
Green Card, which grants them lawful permanent residence and the ability to
eventually apply for U.S. citizenship.
However, Trump has
consistently criticized the DV program. During his first term, he frequently
called for its elimination, arguing that a lottery system was not in the best
interest of U.S. national security. His views hardened in 2017 after a
terrorist attack in New York City, where the suspect was a DV program
beneficiary. Following the incident, Trump expressed outrage, stating that the
program introduced security risks and that it should be scrapped. This incident
intensified his administration's efforts to end the lottery program, framing it
as a matter of national security, despite a lack of statistical evidence
linking the DV program with elevated security threats.
Trump also voiced his
preference for a “merit-based” immigration approach that emphasizes selecting
immigrants based on skills, educational background, and professional
achievements. The DV program, in contrast, selects candidates randomly, as long
as they meet basic eligibility criteria such as a high school education or work
experience. This difference has led Trump to characterize the DV program as
antithetical to his administration's broader immigration agenda.
Potential Actions Trump May Take in His Second Term
If past actions are any
indicator, Trump could take multiple steps to either modify or end the DV
program:
Legislative Reform:
The most straightforward
way to end the DV program would be through legislation. Trump may work closely
with Congress to pass a law eliminating the program or severely restricting its
scope. Legislative reform of this nature could be included in a comprehensive
immigration package that targets broader changes to the U.S. immigration
system, moving it toward a merit-based model. Success here will depend largely
on the composition of Congress and the level of bipartisan support for such a
measure. A divided Congress could present significant obstacles to passing this
type of legislation, especially if it faces opposition from members who view
the DV program as a valuable tool for promoting diversity.
Executive Orders and Administrative Changes:
If legislative action
proves unfeasible, Trump could resort to executive orders to restrict or
suspend the DV program, as he did with other immigration programs during his
previous term. Although executive actions may not permanently end the program,
they could impose temporary restrictions or additional eligibility requirements
that make the program more difficult to access. However, executive actions are
vulnerable to legal challenges and can be overturned by future administrations.
Reform Through Departmental Directives:
Trump’s administration
could also implement regulatory changes that affect the processing and issuance
of DV visas. For example, increasing background check requirements or
introducing stricter vetting processes could effectively reduce the number of
visas granted through the DV program without formally ending it.
Implications of Potential
Changes to the DV Program
If the DV program is
altered or eliminated, the impact would be substantial, affecting both
international applicants and the U.S. itself in several ways:
Reduced Diversity in Immigration:
The DV program is one of
the few immigration pathways that prioritize applicants from countries with low
rates of U.S. immigration. Eliminating it could lead to a reduction in the
diversity of new immigrants, shifting the demographic makeup of U.S. immigration
flows toward countries that already have high immigration rates to the U.S.
Critics argue that ending the DV program would undermine the diversity goals
that Congress originally set out to achieve when it established the program in
1990.
Impact on Underserved Immigrants:
The DV program provides
an avenue for individuals who may lack the qualifications or family connections
often necessary for other U.S. visa categories. Ending it would
disproportionately affect applicants from developing nations who rely on this
opportunity to pursue the American Dream. A move toward a merit-based system
could limit options for these individuals, prioritizing instead those with
professional or technical qualifications.
Shift Toward Merit-Based Immigration:
Trump’s administration is
likely to advocate for a merit-based immigration system that selects immigrants
based on skills, job experience, and education. This would align with the
administration’s past immigration reforms but represents a major shift from the
current framework, potentially impacting the U.S. labor market and economic
diversity in immigration.
Diplomatic Concerns:
The DV program has
diplomatic significance as it impacts citizens from numerous countries around
the world. Ending the program could strain relations with countries that view
it as a symbol of opportunity and access to the U.S. Ending or reducing DV visas
could affect these nations’ perceptions of American openness and equity in
immigration.
Challenges Trump May Face
Ending or altering the DV
program would not be without hurdles. Legislative and legal challenges are
likely to arise:
Congressional Approval:
Eliminating the DV
program entirely would likely require Congress’s approval, which could be
challenging in a divided political climate. Some representatives may strongly
oppose ending a program that provides diverse pathways to immigration.
Legal Challenges:
Previous attempts to
alter immigration policies through executive action have faced significant
legal challenges, and the same could occur with efforts to change the DV
program. Advocacy groups may file lawsuits, arguing that such actions unfairly
restrict legal immigration or violate procedural standards.
Public Opinion and Advocacy:
Immigration advocacy groups and civil rights organizations may rally against efforts to eliminate the DV program, arguing that it plays a vital role in maintaining U.S. diversity. Public opinion may also be influential, particularly if there is significant backlash against restrictive immigration measures.
Given Trump’s
long-standing opposition to the DV program and preference for a merit-based
system, it is highly likely he will pursue significant changes or even attempt
to terminate the program during his second term. However, the success of such
efforts will depend on numerous factors, including congressional support,
potential legal challenges, and the overall political landscape. While the
outcome remains uncertain, the DV program’s future appears precarious under
Trump’s renewed administration.
