As the war in Ukraine grinds on, a new and controversial discussion has emerged: Should Europe send troops to Ukraine to guarantee security after a ceasefire? This high-stakes debate, fueled by French President Emmanuel Macron, comes at a delicate moment for Europe as it grapples with its role in Ukraine’s future without relying on U.S. military involvement.
Trump's Stance Shifts the Spotlight to Europe
The conversation gained
momentum after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump reportedly ruled out deploying
American troops to enforce any peace deal. During talks in Paris on December 7
with Macron and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Trump made it clear:
“Europe will need to take the lead on this.”
For years, European
nations have leaned on U.S. military power for large-scale missions. Now, with
U.S. support waning, European leaders are exploring how to provide security
guarantees for Ukraine alone.
Splits Over the Mission's Purpose
While the idea is in its
early stages, it has already triggered divisions:
France and Ukraine favor
a robust deterrence force to prevent further Russian aggression.
Italy leans toward a
traditional peacekeeping mission—monitoring ceasefire lines.
This lack of clarity has
led to unease. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that publicly
discussing these plans could embolden Vladimir Putin:
“Why would Putin come to
the table when he sees talks about deployment?”
Can Europe Deliver a Post-War Force?
Deploying such a mission
wouldn’t be easy. Military analysts suggest a European deterrence force could
require:
- 40,000 troops for deployment.
- 100,000 troops overall under a rotation system to maintain readiness.
While Europe has
experience with large missions (like Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s), today’s
reality is starkly different:
- Depleted arms stocks from supporting Ukraine.
- Shrinking defense budgets over decades.
- A risk of direct confrontation with Russia.
Former military planner
Franz-Stefan Gady remarked:
“It’s going to severely stretch European land forces.”
Key Challenges Ahead
Several questions remain
unanswered:
Who would contribute?
Nations like France, Germany, Poland, and Britain are expected to shoulder the
bulk of the force. However, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk already ruled out
participation for now.
Under whose authority?
Italy’s defense minister proposed a UN-led force, but that would give Russia a
say as a Security Council member.
WWhat happens if violence
erupts? A senior French military official asked:
“What would happen if a European soldier was shot?”
Europe's Balancing Act
This debate comes at a
time when European leaders want to avoid giving Putin any sense of victory.
Yet, they also face mounting pressure to prepare for post-war Ukraine.
While Macron faces
political blowback for raising the issue, his supporters argue Europe must step
up. As one European official put it:
“Even if NATO backs
Ukraine, the troops on the ground will be European.”
The Bottom Line
Europe’s post-war role in
Ukraine is shaping up to be a defining test of its military and political will.
Can European nations overcome divisions to provide the security Ukraine
desperately needs? Or will this remain a hypothetical debate as the war drags
on?
Only
time will tell.
What’s your take on this
issue? Should Europe take the lead, or is this a risk too far? Share your
thoughts below!